Crypto

A Future Prognosis

Athena @ Shaping Tomorrow

5 February 2023
Introduction
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Contents
User Guide
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Sources
RSS Feeds
Twitter Searches
Web Searches
Twitter Feeds
World Outlook
Main factors that cause something to happen globally
There have been approximately 764 crypto-related M&A transactions globally since 2013, with about 88 in the first seven months of 2022.3 It is anticipated that the total estimated value of transactions in 2022 will be roughly $8 billion. Allen&Overy
By the end of this decade, a few things like how Bitcoin would be regulated and whether it could become a currency with wider usage in the global payments system might become clear. Kalkine Media AU
Another study finds that 44% of regional and global banks will offer crypto support by the end of the year. The Financial Brand
Global regions, coloured according to number of forecasts
SWOT
Strengths
  • The Treasury says that its robust approach to regulation mitigates the most significant risks, while harnessing the advantages of crypto technologies, enabling a new and exciting sector to safely flourish and grow, boosting jobs and investment. ICAEW
  • Fed chair Jerome Powell has previously warned against granting master accounts for crypto banks that could trigger a flood of applications, saying the Fed has to consider the broader safety and soundness implications and calling an approval just hugely precedential. Forbes
  • The U.S. Federal Reserve has delivered a shattering blow to the crypto industry's hopes of mainstream acceptance by rejecting crypto bank Custodia's application to become a member of the Fed's system-warning it suffers from significant safety and soundness risks. Forbes
Weaknesses
  • Senator Elizabeth Warren, a longtime crypto critic, warned recent turbulence in the digital asset space will only continue unless a host of regulators strengthen protections for investors. CNN
  • The restrictions, set to take effect at the beginning of 2025, will limit a bank's exposure to crypto, capping it at 2%.
  • Even with the bullish gold price prediction 2025, competition from Bitcoin as a store of value may limit its upward potential. BTCC
Opportunities
  • The London Lions realise the potential for crypto to transform the UK professional sports industry, making payments faster, more secure, and less expensive on a global scale. Retail Technology Innovation Hub
  • The Federal Reserve is applying a staggering double-standard that favours incumbent banks over start-up banks, and in doing so, it has created financial system risk by allowing crypto companies through the back door to take. Risk.net
  • Payment behemoth Mastercard and Binance, a cryptocurrency exchange, have partnered to introduce a prepaid crypto card, dubbed the Binance Card, in Brazil, which will reportedly support over a dozen other currencies including the Brazilian real, Bitcoin, and Binance's native coin, BNB. CTMfile
Threats
  • Crypto-Agility is Not a Foolproof Crypto Policy As the quantum threat nears, the need to rethink crypto management grows. QuantumXC
  • The final Basel proposals on crypto assets allow tokenized securities to have a conventional risk weighting in most cases. Ledger Insights
  • The UK government's statement accepted the fact that digital assets continue to experience high levels of volatility while mentioning the recent failures that indicate the structural vulnerability of crypto. Crowdfund Insider
Influencers
Countries
Cities
People
Organizations
S-Curve

A framework that describes a 4-phase level of maturity to help determine potential and inform innovation strategy.

Weak
crypto, bitcoin, computer, attack, asset, blockchain
Emerging
bitcoin, crypto, asset, blockchain, bank, company
Maturing
crypto, asset, bank, price, bitcoin, coin
Declining
crypto, bitcoin, asset, bank, carbon, company
Sentiment
Past Year: Stable
Compare changing sentiment to a benchmark of all forecasts
There have been approximately 764 crypto-related M&A transactions globally since 2013, with about 88 in the first seven months of 2022.3 It is anticipated that the total estimated value of transactions in 2022 will be roughly $8 billion. Allen&Overy
Global Bitcoin adoption will hit 10% by 2030, a Blockware Intelligence report shows. TESMANIAN
PEST
Political
  • Crypto asset businesses that are registered with the FCA for anti-money laundering purposes will be allowed to issue their own promotions while the broader crypto asset regulatory regime is being introduced. ICAEW
  • The Treasury says that its robust approach to regulation mitigates the most significant risks, while harnessing the advantages of crypto technologies, enabling a new and exciting sector to safely flourish and grow, boosting jobs and investment. ICAEW
  • Crypto firms that are registered with the Financial Conduct Authority for anti-money laundering (AML) purposes will be allowed to issue their own promotions while the crypto regulatory regime is being introduced. Crowdfund Insider
Economic
  • An inverse head and shoulders pattern is forming on the Bitcoin chart, which is a potentially bullish sign that the top crypto is currently in re-accumulation and could soon head higher. Kitco News
  • 2023 will be bullish for crypto. Kitco News
  • The transition of Ethereum to PoS will reduce global energy consumption by about 0.4% per year as a result. Huobi Research
Social
  • New Entity to Deal With Issues in the Crypto Space in Turkey, Hopes to Increase Transparency. Bitcoin News
  • The Ethereum JavaScript libraries could help developers interact with Ethereum or other EVM - supported blockchains through the JSON-RPC protocol. 101 Blockchains
  • MUFG is leading a consortium of banks and trust banks that will launch stablecoins on both private as well as public blockchains such as Ethereum. / Japan CoinDesk
Technological
  • The UK government's statement accepted the fact that digital assets continue to experience high levels of volatility while mentioning the recent failures that indicate the structural vulnerability of crypto. Crowdfund Insider
  • Senator Elizabeth Warren, a longtime crypto critic, warned recent turbulence in the digital asset space will only continue unless a host of regulators strengthen protections for investors. CNN
  • The Dash 2 Trade platform will be completely powered by the D2T token launching as an ERC-20 token on the Ethereum Network. Crypto Daily
Financial Impact
The digital payment platform sector will grow strongly - on-chain payment volumes reached $25 trillion across stablecoins, Bitcoin, and Ethereum last year but 70% of investors believe they will be worth $30 trillion or more by 2030. CityAM
As the total value destroyed in the current crypto wipeout passes $2 trillion, one can only expect more disputes to arise. Yale Journal on Regulation
Given the trend that we have seen in recent weeks, it is likely that a drop below $1 trillion will have gotten rid of the weak hands that are currently selling, and the value of the crypto space could hold at around $940 billion to $960 billion. InsideBitcoins
Click on the dots or the lines to see the connections
System Map
Organizations
Sectors
Cities
Countries
People
Scenarios
Creates plausible alternative futures of what can happen and encourages development of a robust, agile response
44% of regional and global banks will offer crypto support by the end of the year. Daily Fintech
Globally, we have seen moves to regulate crypto and we anticipate the introduction of a clear South African regulatory regime likely by the end of 2022. ITWeb
By 2035, one cryptocurrency (likely Bitcoin) will emerge as the world's first global currency, supplanting the U.S. Dollar - even in its digital, stablecoin form - as the default currency for international trades and purchases. Futurist Speaker
Warnings
Changing proportion of published forecasts
Recent turmoil in crypto shows why global regulators must act fast to stem risk. Diario AS
Core Scientific, the world's largest bitcoin miner, has warned that it will suspend payments, basically heading towards bankruptcy. Crypto Finance AG
Solutions
Know how others are tackling issues with this topic
Adoption by the developing world is seen as the key driver, with 33% of respondents saying bitcoin will become the currency of choice in developing nations within 10 years. MoneyHunter
'Truly global' bitcoin adoption could be a major element of the 2023 financial landscape. Open Access Government
The world's largest crypto exchange, Binance, has been dealing with a torrent of FUD (fear, uncertainty, and doubt) since the downfall of FTX. CoinTelegraph
Key topics
Extremes
Investigate what’s transforming or collapsing
Under an extreme scenario where gold or Bitcoin becomes the reserve currency of the world, the value of the digital asset could fall between $1.3 million to $4.8 million. usfunds
Proponents of the largest cryptocurrency have long contended that bitcoin will ultimately displace the dollar as a global reserve currency. Blockworks
Stacks blocks will always settle on the Bitcoin blockchain as the ultimate source of truth, but microblocks introduce a new lower-latency global view of the Stacks blockchain transaction state. Hiro
What's Next
Changing proportion of material mentioning future years
The coming years will lay the groundwork for the next class of crypto to innovate and move the needle in the direction of a world where users have more agency and sovereignty over their data, money, and economic transactions. Interop
In India, the Web3 industry has set an ambitious goal of becoming a global hub for Web3, blockchain, and crypto innovation over the next five years, with the potential to contribute over $1 trillion to support India in achieving its goal of becoming a $5 trillion economy. Moneycontrol
Questions
Can?
How RegTech can pave the way for a safer crypto world? CUBE global
Bitcoin lodges near record run, can it continue? Proactiveinvestors UK
Can Bitcoin become the new Stateless Money? UK Business Directory Listings
How?
How will the collapse of FTX impact crypto regulation? FinExtra
How are ZK rollups relevant to the zero-knowledge Ethereum Virtual Machine? 101 Blockchains
How high can Bitcoin price go by the end of 2030? Boys & Girls Clubs of Senegal
Who?
Given the rapid clip at which crypto and blockchain have exploded over the last five years, who knows what the next five years will bring? paymentsjournal
Who hold the most bitcoin? askingthelot.com
If speculators would rather put their chips elsewhere, and conservative investors stay away, who is left to buy Bitcoin? ZyCrypto
What?
What Might Bitcoin Be Used for in the Future? InsideBitcoins
What does the Argo rebound mean for the Bitcoin miner market as a whole? BeInCrypto
What would stop bigger non-crypto apps like Revolut or Monzo creating similar features allowing users to easily create crypto wallets, giving users a gateway to the decentralised world? InvestorsObserver
When?
Will there ever be a time when Bitcoin as we know it ceases to exist? FinancialExpress
Do more people join crypto markets when the price of Bitcoin rises? ResearchBuzz
How can anyone accept crypto as payment when it could be worth a lot less the next day? LinkedIn
Will?
Will Bitcoin and other blockchain applications write the next chapter of democracy and digital computing? The National Interest
Is crypto facing an existential crisis, or is it an inflection point that will guide the next phase of its evolution? Crypto's Great Reset
With the RBI also pushing for a crypto ban, will India ever get its own blockchain education programme? India Today
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