2030

A Future Prognosis

Athena @ Shaping Tomorrow

5 October 2022
Introduction
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Contents
User Guide
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World Outlook
Main factors that cause something to happen globally
The Iraqi government and oil companies around the world have committed to end flaring by 2030. BBC
The global goal of eliminating extreme poverty on the planet by 2030 now appears an even greater challenge than ever, particularly with famine re-emerging in the Horn of Africa, Yemen, Syria and Afghanistan. ACFID
A new report from the UN Climate Change High-Level Champions finds some of the world's most valuable food and agriculture companies could lose up to 26% of their value by 2030, with permanent sector-wide losses equivalent to the 2008 financial crash. Nature4Climate
Global regions, coloured according to number of forecasts
SWOT
Strengths
  • More than 120 countries representing more than half of global methane emissions from human activities are now signed up to the pledge, which commits them to slash their methane emissions by 30% by 2030, and agree to stronger reporting standards. China Dialogue
  • Australia's carbon crediting framework will need to play a pivotal role enabling investment in industrial decarbonisation and other emission reductions to realise Australia's recently legislated higher ambition 2030 NDC4, as well as stronger subsequent NDCs. Carbon Market Institute
  • Europe is already a major green hydrogen hub, with the region set to provide one-third of the total global electrolyser capacity for green hydrogen in 2022, followed by China - a figure that is set to remain stable until 2030. oilprice.com
Weaknesses
  • ACI's Circular Packaging Roadmap outlines a wide set of ambitions, including a goal to achieve a 75% recycling rate for cleaning product packaging waste by 2030. CSR Wire
  • Other commitments include funding sustainable water management programmes in key fresh-produce sourcing areas; developing more rental, resale and return opportunities for customers; and halving food waste across it operations, supply chains and households by 2030. Drapers
  • In fact, an estimated 16% to 30% of climate mitigation needed to limit global emissions to 1.5-2 degrees Celsius is based on halting deforestation by 2030 and a quarter of the 2030 climate mitigation promised in countries' Nationally Determined Contributions comes from land-based mitigation options. Climate Advisers
Opportunities
  • A 1.5 degree goal would require the closure of all coal-fired power by 2030-31, which is unlikely to be feasible based on forecasts that an extra 100 gigawatts of supply capacity would be needed by then. Australian Financial Review
  • Since then, local conglomerates including Hyundai Motor and SK Group announced a combined 50 trillion-won investment in hydrogen by 2030. the korea herald
  • Business travellers returning to pre-pandemic levels by 2023 would lead to UK growth rates going up by 50% by 2030. CityAM
Threats
  • Obesity is a chronic, multifactorial, and relapsing disease with an increasing prevalence estimated to reach 49% by 2030. JAMA
  • ACLM's commitment supports the national strategy unveiled Tuesday by the Biden-Harris Administration to end hunger and increase healthy eating and physical activity by 2030 so fewer Americans experience diet-related diseases - while reducing related health disparities. / USA PR Newswire
  • In the climate stress test projection, the losses from 2030 to 2040 are about £12.5 billion per year, come closer to the losses reported in the macro stress test. Bank Policy Institute
Influencers
Countries
Cities
People
Organizations
S-Curve

A framework that describes a 4-phase level of maturity to help determine potential and inform innovation strategy.

Weak
autonomous, Mars, airplane, computer, augmented reality, market
Emerging
EV, battery, artificial intelligence, car, hydrogen, 5G
Maturing
carbon, emission, country, CO2, demand, electricity
Declining
emission, coal, carbon, CO2, country, GDP
Sentiment
Past Year: Stable
Compare changing sentiment to a benchmark of all forecasts
The Iraqi government and oil companies around the world have committed to end flaring by 2030. BBC
When the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in 2022 said that emissions need to be cut by half by 2030 to mitigate global heating, it stressed that a shift to diets high in plant protein and low in meat and dairy had the greatest potential to lower greenhouse gases. DW.COM
PEST
Political
  • Target D5 - By 2030, governments implement policies and programmes to increase support to non-chemical alternatives including agroecology to replace the chemicals or groups of chemicals of global and regional concern including highly hazardous pesticides. IISD Earth Negotiations Bulletin
  • Despite the brief impact of the COVID-19 lockdown, residential construction revenue in the U.S. is continuing on an upward trend - the size of the North American construction sector is set to reach $2.4 trillion by 2030. The American Prospect
  • The Biden administration has introduced a plan to use mechanical thinning (vegetation removed with machinery) and prescribed fire (starting controlled fires intentionally to remove surface vegetation) to treat fuels on 50 million acres of US forests by 2030. The Breakthrough Institute
Economic
  • Global food prices are increasing at an alarming rate, and are expected to rise by another 120 to 180% by 2030 due, in part, to the effects of climate change. The New Humanitarian
  • Farm support in the form of price incentives and subsidies averaged $540 billion per year in 2013-2018 and forecasts it will reach $1.8 trillion in 2030 if current trends continue. / Brazil S&P Global Platts
  • In China for instance, coal-fired generation will remain relatively flat and elevated this decade, although its share is set to reduce to 51% of power generation by 2030 from two-thirds today, with faster growth in renewables. S&P Global Platts
Social
  • Healthcare spending topped $4.3 trillion in 2021, and is projected to rise to $6.8 trillion by 2030. MedCity News
  • In Los Angeles, leaders have proposed a plan that will require new residential and commercial construction to have zero emissions by 2030. The Nation's Health
  • We need $40 billion dollars per year to feed all of the world's hungry people and end global hunger by 2030. World Food Program USA
Technological
  • Electric performance car brand Polestar has partnered with Swedish startup STILRIDE to use its micromobility manufacturing technology to produce a climate-neutral car by 2030. Zag Daily
  • Thanks in large part to advancements in smart sensors and virtual and augmented reality, the demand for real-time asset monitoring will boost the overall value to $1,495.65 billion by 2030, at a compound annual growth rate of 22.6% from 2021. International Society of Automation
  • Between now and 2030 the fastest-growing job category of all will be motion picture projectionists. Governing
Financial Impact
Analysis of just 78 countries' NDCs, they will require at least USD 5.8 trillion cumulatively to reach their individual commitments for adaptation and mitigation by 2030. Google Docs
The digital payments landscape in Southeast Asia has been rapidly evolving and is expected to reach $1.5 trillion by 2030. The Fintech Times
The total size of tokenized illiquid assets could reach $16.1 trillion by 2030. CoinTelegraph
Click on the dots or the lines to see the connections
System Map
Organizations
Sectors
Cities
Countries
People
Scenarios
Creates plausible alternative futures of what can happen and encourages development of a robust, agile response
A new global survey of 18,000 people show that 34% of consumers favour of a ban on ICE vehicles by 2030, and 47% support a ban by 2035. The Driven
In 2020, global CO 2 totalled 43.2 Gt, which means that, by 2030, CO 2 reduction would have to range between 8.2 Gt and 18.7 Gt to mitigate against the warming scenario. Mining Weekly
Global carbon intensity must fall by 77% by 2030 to keep 1.5 °C on track. PwC
Warnings
Changing proportion of published forecasts
The World Health Organisation states, Water scarcity impacts 40% of the world's population, and as many as 700 million people are at risk of being displaced as a result of drought by 2030. The IRC
The climate crisis, conflict, economic shocks, and inequality are threatening global goals to end hunger and malnutrition by 2030. The New Humanitarian
Solutions
Know how others are tackling issues with this topic
The other major elements of global oil demand-plastics, aviation, and shipping, at 31 %-are less likely to achieve the IEA's NZE conditions by 2030. International Institute for Sustainable Development
The UK's vision is that by 2030 the ocean will be effectively governed, clean, healthy, safe, productive and biologically diverse, linking resilient and prosperous coastal communities around the world. UK Government
The Pacific country of Vanuatu has launched one of the world's most ambitious climate policies, committing to 100% renewable energy in electricity generation by 2030 and ambitious targets on loss and damage. The Guardian
Key topics
Extremes
Investigate what’s transforming or collapsing
By 2030, up to two-thirds of the world's extreme poor will live in conflict affected settings, the World Bank estimates. ONE
By 2030, one quarter of the world's population and 85% of the world's extreme poor will live in fragile and conflict-affected situations. Asian Development Blog
Conflict and poverty are intrinsically linked; by 2030 the World Bank predicts that up to two thirds of the world's extreme poor will live in conflict-affected settings. Bond
What's Next
Changing proportion of material mentioning future years
Samsung's signal to divest from coal comes amid global movement to cancel all new coal power projects and end coal generation in advanced economies by 2030 to avoid climate catastrophe. Insure Our Future Global
Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions need to come down by 45% globally (compared with 2005) by the end of 2030. Global Issues
Questions
Can?
With global healthcare worker shortages estimated by WHO to hit 18 million by 2030, how much longer can the NHS's international recruitment safety net exist? Health Service Journal
Finding more circular solutions could unlock $4.5 trillion in GDP growth by 2030, so how can companies redesign their business models to complete their transition to the circular economy? Fortune
With gains in renewable electricity generation and growing awareness of decarbonization, for Mazria the question is Can we transform the built environment and power sector fast enough to reach the 50% emissions reduction target by 2030? The Architect's Newspaper
How?
How will we reach the goal of ending U.S. hunger and reducing diet-related diseases in a majority of Americans by 2030? Healthy Communities Online
How Can Local Firms Guide Through Headwinds Of Geopolitical Tensions And Rising Protectionism To Achieve Goals Highlighted In The Singapore Economy 2030 Vision? Asia Pacific Metalworking Equipment News | Manufacturin
How can governments work with the financial sector to help align the global financial system with the Glasgow Leaders' Declaration goal of reversing forest loss and degradation by 2030? ICAEW
Who?
Who gained from global growth last decade - and who will benefit by 2030? McKinsey & Company
If 50% of the Big Three's cars are electric in 2030, who do they think is going to buy the other 50%? Charged EVs
Who will be the leaders of renewable energy in Latin America by 2030? Global Americans
What?
What will 2030 look like for quantum computing? Physics World
What will the world of 2030 look like and will we find ourselves in the midst of World War III or beyond it? Emerging Markets "The Next Decade" - Global Perspective
What does the [high level concept] look like on the Battlefield of 2030 and 2040? FedScoop
When?
Is Google's moonshot goal of operating its data centers and campuses entirely on carbon-free energy by 2030 going to make more than a blip of difference when it comes to mitigating the impacts of climate change? Engadget
There's a nagging question arising in the race to embrace electric cars; when at least 40% of new cars across Europe are battery-powered by 2030, will there be enough electricity to go around? Techregister
Remember when China vowed last year to hit peak carbon emissions in 2030 and reach carbon neutrality in 2060? The Energy Bulletin
Will?
What will be the CAGR of the global market between 2022 and 2030? Daily Tech Bulletin
What will be the best careers in 2030? DollarBreak
How much will Link Machine Learning be worth in 2030? Https://Priceprediction.Net
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